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SMi Group are proud to present their 11th annual......

Financial Modelling For PPP/PFI Projects

Financial modelling is an essential part of PPP/PFI projects.  From initial bid through to the operational stage and beyond, financial models are critical for forecasting accurate projections on expenditure and income.  By using historical data, and taking into account current economic conditions, models provide a crucial insight into the budgeting needs for a project.
SMi Group’s 11th annual conference will provide those with an interest in financial modelling a look at how to practically apply models to PPP/PFI projects.  Discover essential developments in topics such as:
  • How to build a model
  • Risk analysis
  • Practical applications of models
  • Live demonstrations of software such as @Risk showing you how to build advanced models
  • Case studies demonstrating the use of models in PPP/PFI schemes
You can also consider the difficulties of using predictive modelling in an unpredictable financial climate by looking at examples of how models have been adapted in the past to accommodate developments within the project.
This is an educative event on the building, benefits and practical application of financial models.  It will benefit anybody interested in advancing their knowledge of financial modelling, or for those involved in PPP/PFI schemes who wish to know how to apply models to their projects. It will also provide you an opportunity to meet and hear from key industry experts, as well as network with people interested in PPP/PFI projects.
  • Learn best practices on how to construct a financial model for PPP/PFI projects
  • Watch live demonstrations of key software by leading experts
  • Gain an understanding of the practical applications
  • Hear case studies on adapting the model through the project development
  • Discuss with other industry experts new developments in the field







  • Directors of Finance
  • Directors of PPP/PFI projects
  • Vice Presidents
  • PPP/PFI Project Managers
  • PPP/PFI Advisors
  • Chief Executives of finance departments
  • Senior Executives from private investment bodies
  • Modelling software solution providers
  • Finance academics
  • Modelling Consultants
  • Lawyers specialising in PPP/PFI schemes
  • Economic engineers
  • Model auditors



Conference programme

8:30 Registration & Coffee

9:00 Chairman's Opening Remarks

John Richter

John Richter, Director, Financial Mechanics

9:10 Delivering Efficiency And Financial Benefits in PPP Models

Kevin Hanlon

Kevin Hanlon, Director, Projects, 4ps

  • Managing funding competitions
  • Transferring risk
  • Payment mechanisms
  • Benchmarking costs
  • Corporate finance models efficiencies
  • VFM in FM: Lifecycle and construction costs
  • 9:50 Financial Modelling Overview

    Kenny Whitelaw-Jones

    Kenny Whitelaw-Jones, Director, Financial Mechanics

  • Why design matters in financial modelling
  • Principles of good design
  • Achieving good design
  •  Good design versus ‘personal style’
  • 10:30 Avoiding Worst Practice

    David Whittaker

    David Whittaker, Director, Modelling Solutions

  • Introduction
  • Financial modelling best practice
  • Sources and consequences of errors
  • The use and limitations of template and generic models
  • Finalising models
  • Summary and conclusion
  • 11:10 Morning Coffee

    11:30 Post-Financial Close Modelling of PPP/PFI Projects

    Morten Siersted

    Morten Siersted, CEO, F1F9

  • Post-financial close modelling requirements
  • Amending the existing model vs starting from scratch
  • Stakeholder approval for model updates and changes
  • Upgrade specification and process, and ongoing change management.
  • What should it all cost?
  • 12:10 Best Practices and Principles in Static and Risk Modelling: Comparisons and Examples using @RISK

    Michael Rees

    Michael Rees, Director of Training and Consulting, Palisade Europe

    ·         Selected best practice modeling principles

    ·         Application of these principles to static and risk modeling: An analysis and comparison

    ·         Example models using Excel and @RISK

    ·         Conclusion: benefits and challenges in risk modeling

    12:50 Networking Lunch

    13:50 Model Auditing

    Jerome Brice

    Jerome Brice, Partner, Project Finance, Mazars

  • What are the key steps in a model audit
  • Latest developments and key tips in ensuring model correctness
  • What assurance does (or more importantly, doesn't) the model audit provide
  • How to become an informed purchaser of  model audit services from both public and private sector perspectives
  • 14:30 Panel Discussion: The Real Costs Of Modelling For PPP

    John Richter

    John Richter, Director, Financial Mechanics

    Jerome Brice

    Jerome Brice, Partner, Project Finance, Mazars

    David Whittaker

    David Whittaker, Director, Modelling Solutions

    Michael Rees

    Michael Rees, Director of Training and Consulting, Palisade Europe

    15:10 Afternoon Tea

    15:40 Modelling Credit Risk of PPP/PFI Models

    William Coley

    William Coley, Vice President, Senior Analyst, Moody's Investors Service

  • Web-based rating models and methodologies
  • Modelling credit risk during construction
  • Modelling credit risk during operation
  • Qualitative factors
  • Rating transition
  • Portfolio analysis
  • 16:20 Risk Modelling Case Study

    Julian Downes

    Julian Downes, Director, JSD-UK

    ·          Benefits of a risk based approach

    ·          Good practice in risk modelling

    ·          Lessons learned from applied risk modelling

    17:00 Chairman’s Closing Remarks and Close of Day One

    8:30 Registration & Coffee

    9:00 Chairman's Opening Remarks

    Brian Madden

    Brian Madden, Managing Director, Strata Business Development

    Morten Siersted

    Morten Siersted, CEO, F1F9

    9:10 Understanding The Practical Applications Of Models

    Colin Ratcliffe

    Colin Ratcliffe, Senior Auditor, National Audit Office

  • The reasons behind using a model
  • Practicalities of using models - adjusting alongside developments
  • Areas financial models have been sucessful - LIFT schemes, schools, housing, waste
  • 9:50 Case Study: Project Rescue - Adapting the Financial Model

    Jimmy McGuinnes

    Jimmy McGuinnes, PPP Project Manager, East Lothian Council

    ·                 The initial bid

    ·                 Constructing a model suited to the project

    ·                 Development through the project

    ·                 Where the model was successful

    ·                 Lessons to learn

    10:30 Morning Coffee

    11:00 Modelling Renewable Energy Projects

    Nazim Osmancik

    Nazim Osmancik, Senior Consultant, IPA Energy and Water Economics

    ·                 Unique aspects of modelling a renewable project

    ·                 Who is the user?

    ·                 The life cycle of the model from the developers point of view

    ·                 What does the developer need to give the financial investor

    11:40 Case Study: Building Schools for the Future Programme

    Glenn Richer

    Glenn Richer, Partner, Rising Curve

  • Overall BSF approach
  • Modelling implications:
    • The LEP approach
    • PFI and D&B
    • Integrating ICT
    • Supporting partnering services
    • Financing setup costs
    • Modelling for performance

    12:20 Networking Lunch

    13:50 Introduction To Sensitivity Analysis Using Crystal Ball

    Dave Hammal

    Dave Hammal, Solutions Specialist, Oracle Corporation UK

    ·          Introduction to risk analysis and simulation for project finance

    ·          Overview of Crystal Ball software

    ·          Working with an Excel base model

    ·          Using Crystal Ball at each project stage: bid, operation, refinancing

    ·          Presentation and application of  knowledge gained from results

    14:30 Applying Crystal Ball In Practice

    Paula Jennings

    Paula Jennings, Director, Navigant Consulting

    ·          Identifying possible risk factors at the project stage

    ·          Interaction with Excel: constructing the model

    ·          Setting up the simulation

    ·          Interpreting and presentation of results

    15:10 Afternoon Tea

    15:40 Dealing Within The Scope Of The Contract

    Philip Adams

    Philip Adams, Partner, Disputes Practice, Shadbolt & Co

    ·          Contractual scope

    ·          Who should participate

    ·          Purpose and effect

    ·          Consequences of failure to agree

    16:20 Contract Management

    ·                 Selecting an appropriate bid

    ·                 Developing contract terms

    ·                 Dispute resolution procedures

    ·                 Where the model fits in the contract

    ·                 Incorporating contract change

    Richard Auton

    Richard Auton, Director, Walker Morris Solicitors

    17:00 Chairman’s Closing Remarks and Close of Day Conference



    Financial Modelling Case Study

    Financial Modelling Case Study

    Crowne Plaza Hotel - St James
    3rd March 2009
    London, United Kingdom

    Crowne Plaza Hotel - St James

    Buckingham Gate 45/51
    London SW1E 6AF
    United Kingdom

    Crowne Plaza Hotel - St James



    speaker image






    CPD stands for Continuing Professional Development’. It is essentially a philosophy, which maintains that in order to be effective, learning should be organised and structured. The most common definition is:

    ‘A commitment to structured skills and knowledge enhancement for Personal or Professional competence’

    CPD is a common requirement of individual membership with professional bodies and Institutes. Increasingly, employers also expect their staff to undertake regular CPD activities.

    Undertaken over a period of time, CPD ensures that educational qualifications do not become obsolete, and allows for best practice and professional standards to be upheld.

    CPD can be undertaken through a variety of learning activities including instructor led training courses, seminars and conferences, e:learning modules or structured reading.


    There are approximately 470 institutes in the UK across all industry sectors, with a collective membership of circa 4 million professionals, and they all expect their members to undertake CPD.

    For some institutes undertaking CPD is mandatory e.g. accountancy and law, and linked to a licence to practice, for others it’s obligatory. By ensuring that their members undertake CPD, the professional bodies seek to ensure that professional standards, legislative awareness and ethical practices are maintained.

    CPD Schemes often run over the period of a year and the institutes generally provide online tools for their members to record and reflect on their CPD activities.


    Professional bodies and Institutes CPD schemes are either structured as ‘Input’ or ‘Output’ based.

    ‘Input’ based schemes list a precise number of CPD hours that individuals must achieve within a given time period. These schemes can also use different ‘currencies’ such as points, merits, units or credits, where an individual must accumulate the number required. These currencies are usually based on time i.e. 1 CPD point = 1 hour of learning.

    ‘Output’ based schemes are learner centred. They require individuals to set learning goals that align to professional competencies, or personal development objectives. These schemes also list different ways to achieve the learning goals e.g. training courses, seminars or e:learning, which enables an individual to complete their CPD through their preferred mode of learning.

    The majority of Input and Output based schemes actively encourage individuals to seek appropriate CPD activities independently.

    As a formal provider of CPD certified activities, SMI Group can provide an indication of the learning benefit gained and the typical completion. However, it is ultimately the responsibility of the delegate to evaluate their learning, and record it correctly in line with their professional body’s or employers requirements.


    Increasingly, international and emerging markets are ‘professionalising’ their workforces and looking to the UK to benchmark educational standards. The undertaking of CPD is now increasingly expected of any individual employed within today’s global marketplace.

    CPD Certificates

    We can provide a certificate for all our accredited events. To request a CPD certificate for a conference , workshop, master classes you have attended please email events@smi-online.co.uk

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